bg img 03Given the high seismicity in South-Eastern Europe, and Greece in particular, which corresponds to more than 80% of the seismic energy released at the European level, and the significant direct and indirect cost of damage and loss associated with a major earthquake, the development of methods and tools for the mitigation of earthquake loss is of paramount importance.

This is a complex, essentially stochastic problem, not only due to the inherent probabilistic nature of earthquake itself, but also due to the complexity of modern multi-layered economy and social life, facts that render it difficult to assess in advance, quantify, manage and finally minimize the potential earthquake-induced consequences. For this reason, during the last decade, significant research effort has been made worldwide towards the development of a methodology to predict the expected earthquake losses, inclusive of structural and non-structural damage, human loss, infrastructure service disruption and indirect socio-economic cost, as a means to minimize what is called Seismic Risk, i.e., the overall Risk to elements of given Seismic Vulnerability that are exposed to certain levels of Seismic Hazard.

A large number of the so-called fragility curves relating the probabilistic vulnerability of specific structural systems to seismic intensity is currently available both in Europe and the US, primarily for buildings but also for bridges (Moschonas et al., 2009; Kwon & Elnashai, 2006), some of them additionally considering soil-structure interaction effects (Aygun et al., 2010), surface fault rupture and pre-earthquake strengthening (Kim & Shinozuka, 2004; Pinto & Mancini, 2008; Padgett & DesRoches, 2008, 2009).

Numerous earthquake loss scenarios have also been developed for many European cities (Bard et al.1995; Barbat et al.,1996; D’Ayala et al. 1996; Dolce et al. 2003, 2004; Faccioli et al. 1999; Kappos et al. 2002, 2008), all of them focusing solely on the expected loss due to building damage. In contrast to the research work on the vulnerability of buildings and bridges, significantly fewer developments have been achieved on

  • (a) predicting the physical vulnerability of lifelines and infrastructures, including the roadway and railway networks, and
  • (b) estimating the interdependent behaviour of buildings, lifelines and infrastructures at a system level. Given the fact that potential failure of lifelines and infrastructure may have a tremendous financial impact (i.e., Northridge, US 1994; Kobe, Japan, 1995; Kocaeli, Turkey, 1999; Chile (Maule) 2010; Christchurch, New Zealand, 2010; Fukushima, Japan, 2011), all developed societies are increasingly less tolerant to the large associated economic loss, especially during the particular period of economic instability.

Augusti, G., Ciampoli, M., and Frangopol, D. (1998). "Optimal planning of retrofitting interventions on bridges in a motorway network." Engineering Structures, Elsevier, 20(11), 933–939.

Aygun B., Dueñas-Osorio L., Padgett J.E., DesRoches R. (2010) “Efficient Longitudinal Seismic Fragility Assessment of a Multi-Span Continuous Steel Bridge on Liquefiable Soils”. Journal of Bridge Engineering. 16(1), 93-107

Barbat, A.H., Moya, F.Y., Canas, J.A. et al. (1996). Damage Scenarios Simulation for Seismic Risk Assessment in Urban Zones. Earthquake Spectra, 12 (3): 371-394.

Bard, P.Y., et al. (1995) Seismic zonation methodology for the city of Nice-Progress report. Proceedings 3rd Intern. Conf. on Seismic Zonation (Nice, France, Oct. 1995), III: 1749-1784.

D’Ayala, D.F., Spence, R.J.S., Oliveira, C.S., and Silva, P. (1996) Vulnerability of buildings in historic town centres: A limit-state approach. 11th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering (Acapulco, Mexico, June 1996), Paper No. 864 [CD ROM Proceedings], Pergamon.

Dolce M., Masi A., Moroni C., Liberatore D., Laterza M., Ponzo F., Cacosso A., D’Alessandro G., Faggella M., Gigliotti R., Perillo G., Samela L., Santarsiero G., Spera G., Suanno P., Vona M. (2004), Evaluation of seismic vulnerability of school buildings in Potenza municipality, Proc of 11st Nat. Congr. “L’Ingegneria Sismica in Italia”, Genoa, (in Italian).

Dolce, M., Masi, A., Marino, M., Vona, M. (2003) Earthquake damage scenarios of the building stock of Potenza (Southern Italy) including site effects. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 1 (1): 115-140.

Faccioli E., Pessina V., Calvi, G.M., and Borzi, B. (1999) A study on damage scenarios for residential buildings inCatania city. Journal of Seismology, 3 (3): 327–343.

Kappos, A. J. (2009) "Guest Editorial: Earthquake Protection of Bridges", Bull. of Eart. Eng., 7(2), 341-342.

Kim, S.-H. and Shinozuka, M. (2004) “Development of fragility curves of bridges retrofitting by column jacketing”, Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics, 105-112.

Kwon, Ο.-S., Elnashai, A. (2006) “Fragility analysis of R/C bridge pier considering soil-structure interaction”, Structures Congress: Structural Engineering and Public Safety, ASCE.

Lin, B.K. and Wald, D.J. (2008) “ShakeCast Manual,” USGS Report.

Moschonas, I. F., Kappos, A. J., Panetsos, P., Papadopoulos, V., Makarios, T., and Thanopoulos, P. (2009). "Seismic fragility curves for greek bridges: methodology and case studies." Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 7(2), 439-468.

Padgett, J. and Des Roches, R. (2008) “Methodology for the development of analytical fragility curves for retrofitted bridges”, Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics, Vol.37, 1157-1174.

Padgett, J. and Des Roches, R. (2009) “Retrofitted Bridge Fragility Analysis for Typical Classes of Multispan Bridges”, Earthquake Spectra, Vol.25, 105-112.

Pamuk, Α., Κalkan, Ε., Ling, Η.Ι. (2005) “Structural and geotechnical impacts of surface rupture on motorway structures during recent earthquakes in Turkey”, Soil Dyn. & Earthq. Engineering, 581-589.

Pinto, P. and Mancini, G. (2008) “Seismic assessment and retrofit of existing bridges”, The state of Earthquake Engineering Research in Italy : The RELUIS-DPC 2005-2008 Project, 111-145.